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Analysis of Domestic Saving on Fastening Economic Growth in Ethiopia: vector Error Correction Approach

Abstract: 

This study used co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) to examine the effect and causal relationship between the growth rate of real Gross Domestic Saving (GDS) and growth rate of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Ethiopia. The estimation is undertaken for the period 1965-2013 using Eview 8 software. In the process of analysis, the time series properties of macroeconomic variables were ascertained by using the ADF unit root test procedure. Finally, the long-run relationship between variables was explored by utilizing the Johansen procedure. The estimated results indicated that one order of integration or I(1) for the series was considered. From the result, the coefficient of the co-integrating equation tells that about 36 percent of equilibrium corrected each year by change in aggregate domestic saving. Gross domestic saving in Ethiopia is affected by age dependency ratio, real exchange rate, real interest rate, real gross domestic product, foreign capital inflow and money supply both in the short and long run. Saving is positively related to income level or GDP growth and terms of trade. Elasticity of exchange rate with respect to domestic saving is low and insignificant in the short run and high and significant in the long run. This implied that continuous depreciation of real exchange rate have a positive impact on domestic saving. Addressing institutional (through sensible policies such as formalization of the informal sector), and structural problems (such as infrastructural provision and efficient and relevant education policy) is also noted in the empirical literature as influencing saving mobilization. 

Corporate Author: 
Ethiopian Economics Association (EEA)
Publisher: 
Ethiopian Economics Association (EEA)
ISBN/ISSN: 
978-99944-54-59-4
Primary Descriptors: 

Growth, Cointegration

Secondary Descriptor: 

Model, Vector Error Correction

Geographic Descriptors: 
Ethiopia
Cataloge Date: 
09/28/2017
Broad Subject heading: 
Saving
Call Number: 
330.0963 PRO 2017
Serial Key Title: 
Proceedings of the Fourteenth International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy
Publication catagory: 
Content type: 
Volume: 
I
Year: 
2017
Publication date: 
2017-06-01 00:00:00
Conference Place: 
Addis Ababa, EEA Multi-purpose Building Conference Hall
Place of publication: 
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Type of material: 
Book
Current frequency: 
Annual
Thematic area: 
Macroeconomics, Trade and Industry Related Topics
Author: 
Conference date: 
July 21 – 23, 2016