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Link Between Economic Growth And Population Growth In Ethiopia: Malthusian Or Boserupian?

Abstract: 

Using time series data from 1973/74 to 2004/05, we examined the link between population growth and economic growth in Ethiopia. Methodologically, we used the ADF test to check for unit root and employed both Engle-Granger (E-G) and Johansen cointegration approaches to find out the long run relationship between population growth and economic growth. Firstly, we tested for unit root and found population growth and economic growth are I(1) in levels and I(0) in their first difference. Secondly, we checked for cointegration relationship and found no cointegration relationship between the two variables in both the E-G and Johansen procedure. Then, we estimated a VAR (2) model to investigate the short run relationship between the two variables and our results indicate statistically significant negative effect of population growth on economic growth. Lastly, we diagnosed the estimated VAR model and found it immune from misspecifications. Precisely, our results reveal that in the long run population growth in Ethiopia has no relation to economic growth. However, in the short run, the econometric evidence supports the Malthusian view that population growth is bad for economic growth. We draw policy implications of our results

Corporate Author: 
Getnet Alemu & Worku Gebeyehu (Editor) & Ethiopian Economic Association/Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute
Publisher: 
Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA)
ISBN/ISSN: 
978-99944-54-19-8
Primary Descriptors: 

Eonomic growth

Secondary Descriptor: 

cointegration

Cataloge Date: 
02/27/2013
Broad Subject heading: 
population growth
Call Number: 
330.963 PRO 2011
Serial Key Title: 
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy
Publication catagory: 
Content type: 
Volume: 
II
Publication date: 
2013-06-27 23:11:00
Forum or Discussion date: 
2013-02-27 15:43:10
Place of publication: 
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Type of material: 
Book
Current frequency: 
Annualy