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The Contribution of Major Export Commodities of Ethiopia to the Volatility of the Country's Export Earnings


Ethiopian export, like many other developing countries, is limited to few primary products, which are mainly agricultural. Studies show that such commodity concentration could result in volatility of export earnings, which in turn will affect capital formation and growth. This is due to high dependence of developing countries on earnings from the export sector to satisfy their import requirements. It is argued that volatility of such proceeds will significantly influence output by constraining input and production planning. The present study analyzes Ethiopia's export earnings instability by employing country-specific models which will take advantage of the sufficiently large sample period, from 1962 to 2008. The study identifies the contributions of major agricultural export commodities, namely coffee, hides and skins, oilseeds, pulses and fruits and vegetables. Attempts have also been made to make comparisons between the sub-periods of the Imperial, Derg and Post-Derg periods, since these sub-periods experienced distinct trade and foreign policies. The study finds that the post-Derg period is characterized by higher level of instability and diversification of exports. This calls for the reconsideration of the direction of the diversification policy towards commodities that are negatively correlated with the traditional export commodities of the country

Corporate Author: 
Getnet Alemun & Ethiopian Economic Association/Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute
Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA)
Primary Descriptors: 

Export Commodities

Secondary Descriptor: 


Geographic Descriptors: 
Cataloge Date: 
Broad Subject heading: 
Growth and Development
Call Number: 
330.963 PRO 2010
Serial Key Title: 
Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy
Publication catagory: 
Content type: 
Publication date: 
2013-05-27 23:10:00
Forum or Discussion date: 
2013-02-27 15:02:21
Place of publication: 
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Type of material: 
Current frequency: